CRUDE : Called It!

 

I though it would be fascinating to make a post from all of my Weekly Ichimoku Wrap Up Crude Analysis from the May 2014 top until now.

Please, step inside my CL time machine :

 First, let’s look at the CL Monthly Chart as a reference for the move:

 

CLMonthly


CL Weekly May 24th

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/VcCKY6mVnbrA
CL put in a very bullish candle last week but headed into a potential resistance area above around 104.78. It is important to observe the thin flat cloud ahead which is a sign of a potential reversion to mean. Look backwards in the chart to where that happened previously.

 


 

CL Weekly May 31st, 2014


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/2Kq0BAXmeoU

 

CL put in a bearish reversal last week I am expecting a test of tenkan-sen this week at 101.87. I believe the likelihood is lower due to the thin cloud below as well as the flat tenkan-sen. If I am correct and prices trend lower look for support at the 38.2% fib at 101.15 then cloud around 100.

CL Weekly June 7th, 2014


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/buW7m6o40x9
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CL held the tenkan-sen this week but formed a long legged doji. This formation is still bullish in Ichimoku terms: Price above cloud & tenkan-sen, chikou above all. There is no clear direction here however as we have some mixed signals: while overall bullish, we have a flat thin cloud below. The cloud is flat because of the extremely tight range crude has been in. *If* CL loses the tenkan-sen, chances are quite good price will com back to test the cloud below around $100.

CL Weekly June 14th


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/n6pRXqsbrL

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Very Bullish candle bouncing off the tenkan-sen. As far as potential signs a pullback might be due: check out the shape and distance to the cloud below. The cloud is thin and price is pretty extended above it. This by no means indicates we won’t go higher but mean reversion could be in play here in the coming days/weeks. If we do pull back look for the tenkan-sen to offer support  at 103.21

CL Weekly June 21st, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/XuNBjVkC
Inside candle here into prior resistance area, extended over tenkan-sen and flat cloud below. Chances are good we could see a pullback towards cloud below but still fully bullish. All about the news it seems.

CL Weekly June 28th

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/hqit2TqXdUQ

 

Crude put in a rather bearish candle this week and although the chart is otherwise bullish I think it is extended here an begging for a trip towards the flat tenkan-sen below at 103.23. Another clue is the distance above  the flat cloud below. Mean reversion. Return to equilibrium.


CL Weekly July 5th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/3zeIqc3EN

Crude continued lower making lower lows. Potential short target/support at the tenkan-sen at 103.30 (or wherever it opens at). Could of course spike that level and bounce. If 103.30 is lost, watch chikou coming into the kijun-sen 101.71

CL Weekly July 12th, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/6r25Yo5n0r

Crude was a beautiful short on Thursday & all day Friday. I just noticed the gap fill from April (in light blue) was where we closed. I normally get this email done before reopen but tonight I was just on the line so I will show the new open as it provides and excellent example: 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/qkK4fDc9Uc

You can see how the kijun-sen tipped up from it’s prior location and is now providing support at 100.67. It will be important to monitor this level for below we can see prior support at 99.96 area but below that the flat cloud will surely attract price action and as it is very thin could be violated to the downside.

CL Weekly July 19th, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/Zztue0O9JpHo

CL did just what I was expecting last week, tagging the weekly cloud and bouncing off it, with a close above the weekly kijun-sen and just under the 61.8 fib of the swing shown. According to the Ichimoku, It is still bullish and this candle could be a reversal candle. Factors to take note of: Cloud is very thin here – a retest of it could fail. The Chikou span (the red line representing price time shifted back 26 weeks in this case) is bullish above the cloud but finding resistance at the kijun-senand the 61.8% Fib at 101.85. If price continues higher, look for resistance at 101.85 then 103.35. If price is lower look for the cloud and the 50% Fib to support at 99.24. If broken look at 98.52 then 97.88 below.

CL Weekly July 26th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/2RACoM1j1E

CL posted an inside doji on the week with a very small real candle body and long wicks on either end. A surely indecisive week with some very nice moves for those of us who were nimble and inclined to take shorter timeframe moves. Until either the tenkan-sen is broken to the upside or the kijun-sen is lost to the downside, we must abide by the trend which is technically down.In broad Ichimoku terms despite the current downtrend price is stillabove the cloud and therefore bullish. If kijun-sen is lost to the downside there are several levels of horizontal support below such as 101, 100.92, 100.44 and the cloud itself is around 99.10. The cloud is flat and as price gets closer to it (if it does) it will be more and more attracted to it.The cloud is also thin so does not offer very strong support so longs need to be very careful in this area 98.82-99.10.The Chikou Span has support at the kijun-sen so that could be a factor if it is able to ride that and then up and over the candles in a potentially bullish scenario.

Let’s look at the bigger picture on CL : 61.8% fib is at 103.74.


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/IrR4t0NBeI

CL Weekly July 26th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/4ICGGakOcW
A very bearish week for crude as we lost the thin cloud support as I suggested was possible in last week’s email. Why did the selling stop here? Take a peek at the chikou span coming into support at the top of the candles. The chikou represents current price time shifted 26 periods into the past so in this case 26 weeks. If the chikou loses the candle support we see, look for the bottom of the cloud at 96.50 then the tenkan-sen under that if that is lost. If chikou holds candles for a bounce, look at the cloud above price to reject at around 98.80.

CL Weekly August 2nd, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/4ICGGakOcW
A very bearish week for crude as we lost the thin cloud support as I suggested was possible in last week’s email. Why did the selling stop here? Take a peek at the chikou span coming into support at the top of the candles. The chikou represents current price time shifted 26 periods into the past so in this case 26 weeks. If the chikou loses the candle support we see, look for the bottom of the cloud at 96.50 then the tenkan-sen under that if that is lost. If chikou holds candles for a bounce, look at the cloud above price to reject at around 98.80.

CL Weekly August 9th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/2oVfMyO5Kp
Crude put in a long legged doji last week after attempting to bounce back towards the cloud but found support over the 23.6% Fib of this swing high to low. Currently the cloud is quite thin and flat above. Flats attract bounces but other factors don’t necessarily suggest this is going to happen. The chikou span is now under the candles but still has support inside the cloud. In summation, downtrend is still in effect in all ways. There is the potential for a reversal but cloud ahead will resist. If lower, watch the chikou holding or losing cloud support.

CL Weekly August 16th

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/2oVfMyO5Kp
Crude put in a long legged spinning top doji last week and by failing to put in a higher high/higher low, did not change it’s weekly trend. Also of note is the body of the candle which is also sports a lower high and lower low. We could have a change of trend to the upside but that would require confirmation. Watch the chikou span for clues as it navigates the inside of the cloud. a loss of the cloud by the chikou whoul add to the overall bearish picture. If higher look for resistance at the cloud around 99.07 

CL Weekly August 23rd, 2014

 


 
Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/yzVOuWp7tl

This week we saw CL move considerably lower. Technically, in Ichimoku terms, we are in a downtrend and bearish in all ways: price under cloud, chikou is under cloud, tenkan-sen & kijun-sen bear crossed and pointing down. However, we are getting a bit extended below the cloud and coming into prior support areas here as proven by the medium-small wick on the bottom of last weeks candle. Any reversal of trend to the upside will need to be confirmed by a higher high and low, as always but there are no signs of this thus far on this timeframe

CL Weekly with Fibs


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/xvGaNcrhoJf
If we zoom out to a longer timeline and run Fibs we see that we are coming to a 38.2% at 92.17 so I am watching that area for a potential bounce. Otherwise look to shorter timeframe charts for clues.

CL Weekly August 30th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/vwhnpDZW0rQq
A strong bullish candle this week confirmed a new uptrend with a higher high and a higher low. If you look at my fibs you’ll see the bounce occurred almost precisely at my 23.6% level. If we go higher I will be looking a the 38.2% which is 96.63 then 97.24 which would be the open body gap fill on this timeframe. Overall, however, CL is still bearish with price  and the chikou span below the cloud.

CL Weekly September 7th, 2014

Big Picture

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/xtuPQJkh


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/CBSePtFjpBb6

This week confirmed a new downtrend with a lower high and a lower low. Essentially all of last weeks gains were erased but support at the 93.33 area held as buyers came in.  In the event this support is lost I am looking at the 92.60s to potentially provide support.If we bounce, look for the 96.50 area to be retested. Overall, CL is bearish with price and the chikou span below the cloud.

CL Weekly Sept 13th, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/zT10Qw10sY

CL sold off last week but bounced @ the 50% of the 2008-2009 range. The candle could be characterized as a hammer with buyers causing a nearly 50% bottom tail. Overall however, price is still bearish as it is under the cloud, in fast timeframe downtrend and chikou is under the cloud as well. If we bounce, look to shorter timeframes for levels before (if) we get back to the 94.44 level.

CL Weekly Sept 27th, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/j84TPPeC67X

CL Provided us with more choppy price action last week, consummating in a long legged doji. Technically there has been a trend change to the upside with this candle making a higher high and a higher low but it’s a bit tricky to say so with the actual candle body opening and closing below the prior candle body. Unlike many technicians, I tend to place more importance on the bodies than the wicks. This varies from product to product as certain ones have more or less of a tendency to overshoot/run stops/etc. CL loves to do so.
What does this mean for price going forward? Hard to say. We are around the 50% of the much larger pattern which seems to be continuing to provide support at 90.88 but in Ichimoku terms, CL is still bearish under the cloud with chikou also under the cloud. One change we see from last week is that the kijun-sen has gone flat which may attract price upward. Also the chikou is flattening out a bit shown a decrease in momentum to the downside.
After watching CL trade last week my intuition suggests this possible scenario : a flush to the downside taking out stops of fresh longs and then a rip to the upside to take out the stops of new and old bears alike. Upside resistance will be found at 96.94 on this timeframe and many other levels but we would have to look to shorter timeframes for those.


CL Weekly October 4th, 2014



Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/XADYgWy8RjR
 

CL saw more selling this week but put in a spike that held the prior swing candle body low. I drew my fibs from here at 88.20. Because of the long bottoming tail and the candle closing over a dollar off the lows, I think it is possible we could see a bounce here but overall in Ichimoku terms the chart is still fully bearish. Keep a close eye on any retest of the 88.20 level because there are surely stops below.
P.S. I am not saying that I am bullish. The Chart is still fully bearish here.

CL Weekly October 11th, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/b6obHFj2Q4

CL saw more selling this week and once again put in a bottoming tail. There is a fair amount of prior support in this area and the RSI has gone oversold. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a bounce similar to the last time the RSI looked like this July 2012 but it would likely be limited to 90.88-91.09 where we find the 50% of the range from 2007 to now and the tenkan-sen.

In Ichimoku terms this chart is fully bearish and extended but there are no signs that a bounce will happen yet. Some signs that would signal such would be a flattening of the tenkan-sen or kijun-sen and a level off of the chikou span.


CL Weekly Oct 18th, 2014


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/CtqbqBUWBK

Last week I said : “CL saw more selling this week and once again put in a bottoming tail. There is a fair amount of prior support in this area and the RSI has gone oversold. <snip> In Ichimoku terms this chart is fully bearish and extended but there are no signs that a bounce will happen yet. Some signs that would signal such would be a flattening of the tenkan-sen or kijun-sen and a level off of the chikou span.”Nothing has really changed. Keeping an eye on $78 as a downside target.

CL Weekly October 25th, 2014



Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/rrG14GpXl

In Ichimoku terms CL is still bearish under the cloud. There is horizontal support in this area and RSI (not pictured) is indeed oversold. Still keeping an eye on $78 as a downside target, but a bounce here would not surprise me as tenkan-sen has gone flat which should attract price upward.

CL Weekly November 1st, 2014

 


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/3PxjnpyMR7F3

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/CqMg8v8nwCQ

In Ichimoku terms CL is still bearish under the cloud.  Still keeping an eye on $78 as a downside target. Tenkan-sen which was flat last week is now pointing down again : not bullish.


CL Weekly November 8th, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/zZ1x2gdS

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/CqMg8v8nwCQ

Last Week I wrote: “In Ichimoku terms CL is still bearish under the cloud.  Still keeping an eye on $78 as a downside target. Tenkan-sen which was flat last week is now pointing down again : not bullish.”

CL on this timeframe is still fully bearish but there was obvious buying support under $78 as we can see by the long bottoming tail on the weekly candle. As we can see in the first chart above $78 has been an important level of support. We have very oversold RSI here but overall Ichimoku chart is still bearish in all ways. Should be an interesting week, especially if we move lower below $78


CL Weekly November 15th, 2014


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/gu7RGHRC
Bearishness continued as crude made new lows but buyers came in and bought it to the level of last weeks low. Overall still bearish in Ichimoku terms with no signs of bounce other than bottoming tail.

CL Weekly November 22nd, 2014

 

Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart :  http://screencast.com/t/fJzBb1um


Alternative link for higher resolution version of chart : http://screencast.com/t/4xKEnBpI

Some bullish progress was made last week with an open at the same 75.93 level as the prior close as we put in a spinning top doji. The tenkan-sen is leveling off and kijun-sen has gone flat. RSI still oversold. Expecting news driven spike action here an a bounce is possible but overall the chart is still quite bearish, albeit extended to the downside. This weeks candle could mark a change of trend to the upside but we would require a higher high and low to confirm.We have the OPEC Meeting on Thursday Here’s a link to tentative schedule.
We also have Holiday Trading Hours in the futures market.

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